Market Briefs

Product Role

Market Briefs are Arenaton’s first premium intelligence object. They compress market rules, source context, price state, timing triggers, risks, avoid conditions, paper rehearsal prompts, and cited sources into a structured decision-support artifact.

Briefs are not financial advice, buy/sell instructions, official resolution statements, confidence scores, probability forecasts, fair-value models, or guaranteed-edge claims.

Users pay for Market Briefs because they save research time, surface market-specific risks and timing triggers, and help traders avoid poorly informed decisions before committing real capital. The promise is context compression and decision hygiene: know what to watch, what can invalidate the thesis, and when not to trade.

Day-One Scope

Day-one full Market Briefs target NBA matchup-outcome markets.

Included:

• NBA winner-style matchup markets.
• Official final-score settlement rules.
• Current YES/NO price context from the source market snapshot.
• Lineup and injury timing when explicit sources are available.
• Paper YES/NO rehearsal prompts for learning and review.

Excluded:

• Parlays.
• Player props.
• Synthetic spreads or totals that are not cleanly defined by the source market.
• Soccer, NFL, crypto, politics, and broad autonomous news crawling.
• Confidence scores, fair-value models, probability claims, edge ratings, and automated buy/sell recommendations.

Full Brief Fields

The free preview includes deterministic basics such as rules summary, price context, watch trigger, source timestamps, freshness state, and an unlock CTA. It must not leak paid fields such as Risk, Avoid, or paper rehearsal suggestions.

A full day-one brief contains these fields:

Field	Purpose
Market rules	Explain the source market and settlement rule.
Current price context	Record YES/NO price context from the current market snapshot.
Watch trigger	Name the timing or information item to monitor.
Risk trigger	Surface market-specific risk that can change the thesis.
Avoid trigger	Explain when the user should avoid relying on the brief without refresh.
Paper rehearsal suggestion	Describe a simulated learning action or decision journal prompt.
Source links with timestamps	Show the linked sources used to build the brief.
Caveat and scope notes	State that the brief is decision support, not financial advice.

Source Policy

Every brief field must resolve to either a timestamped source link or a clearly labeled market-derived observation from the current snapshot.

Allowed sources:

• Source market page and order-book snapshot.
• Official NBA game, schedule, or box-score pages.
• Official team injury reports when available.
• One approved sportsbook or odds source when explicitly configured.
• The user’s Arenaton paper-trade history where relevant.

Excluded sources:

• Uncited rumors.
• Autonomous web sweeps.
• Social sentiment summaries.
• Verifiable-looking but opaque AI assertions.
• Insider claims without traceable sourcing.

Credit Quality Gate

Arenaton should consume a free full-run allowance or paid credits only when a brief has all required premium properties:

• current market snapshot timestamp;
• price context;
• settlement or rules source;
• at least one relevant timing or risk source;
• explicit Watch, Risk, Avoid, and Rehearse fields;
• generated-at timestamp;
• visible source list.

The current pulse implementation also enforces the v1 output sections, rejects unsafe trading language, requires timestamped source labels, stores failed full-run artifacts without quota consumption, and uses an explicit paid-fallback confirmation after the daily free allowance is exhausted.

If the brief cannot meet the quality bar, Arenaton should return a limited free preview or failed stored run and must not consume credits.

Freshness States

Briefs are live workflow artifacts, not timeless reports. When the user opens a stored brief, Arenaton compares the brief snapshot against the latest available market snapshot and tracked source timestamps.

State	Meaning
Current	Snapshot, price context, and tracked sources remain within configured thresholds.
Watch	The brief is still usable, but the event is close enough that timing risk is elevated.
Review Needed	A tracked lineup or injury timestamp changed after generation.
Stale	The market moved or changed enough that the brief should be refreshed before use.

Day-one default thresholds:

• Mark Stale when the market price moves by 4 cents or more from the brief snapshot price.
• Mark Watch when the brief is older than 30 minutes within the final 2 hours before tip-off.
• Mark Review Needed whenever a tracked lineup or injury-report timestamp changes.
• Mark Stale immediately when the market is suspended, closed, or resolved.

Thresholds are configurable internally, but defaults should favor reviewability over aggressive real-time claims.

Example Brief Shape

Sample market: NBA matchup outcome, “Will Dallas win tonight?”

Field	Example
Watch	Lineup confirmation before tip-off.
Risk	Injury-report changes after the brief snapshot.
Avoid	Do not rely on the brief if live price moves before the linked source update.
Rehearse	Rehearse a paper YES at 0.42 and review after close.
Full brief	Rules, YES/NO price context, assumptions, source timestamps, caveat, and freshness state.

This example describes how the terminal changes behavior. It does not say whether to trade, what the fair price is, or whether the market has positive expected value.

Paper Rehearsal Language

Paper rehearsal suggestions describe simulated actions for learning, comparison, review, or decision journaling.

Allowed examples:

• “Rehearse a paper YES at 0.42 and review after close.”
• “Compare paper YES versus no-trade after lineup confirmation.”
• “Log why the trade was avoided after the spread widened.”

Prohibited phrases include:

• “Buy YES.”
• “Take YES.”
• “This is a good entry.”
• “Expected value is positive.”
• “Increase position size.”
• “High-confidence trade.”

The purpose of paper rehearsal is workflow practice and post-decision review, not trade instruction.